Take a Peek at the Loons

Abbreviated Pundit Round-up

Published on: 3rd September, 2010

Abbreviated Pundit Round-up  | read this item

Friday opinion. End of summer, and a hurricane to boot.

Earl (it could be worse) watch:

weatherdude has some great links and prep info.

WaPo on the 2008 fiscal crisis:

In testimony before the Congressionally appointed committee, Bernanke said that statutory gaps were an important contributor to the buildup of risk in the system but that even when regulators had the tools they needed to stem those risks, they did not use them well.

“Once a crisis occurs, timely and effective action by the government is critical to containing the severity of financial disruptions and their economic effects…However, the crisis revealed large gaps in the government’s ability to respond quickly, effectively, and with minimum cost to taxpayers and the economy,” Bernanke said.

Paul Krugman:

Next week, President Obama is scheduled to propose new measures to boost the economy. I hope they’re bold and substantive, since the Republicans will oppose him regardless — if he came out for motherhood, the G.O.P. would declare motherhood un-American. So he should put them on the spot for standing in the way of real action.

NY Times on polling NYers about Muslims:

Tolerance, however, isn’t the same as understanding, so it is appalling to see New Yorkers who could lead us all away from mosque madness, who should know better, playing to people’s worst instincts.

That includes Carl Paladino and Rick Lazio, Republicans running for governor who have disgraced their state with histrionics about the mosque being a terrorist triumph. And Rudolph Giuliani, who cloaks his opposition to the mosque as “sensitivity” to 9/11 families without acknowledging that this conflates all prayerful Muslims with terrorists, a despicable conclusion.

Republicans will do anything to get elected, including foster hate. It’s not new, but neither is it pleasant to watch.

Michael Gerson:

A church in Florida is poised to commemorate an act of violence committed in the name of Islam, the Sept. 11, 2001, terrorist attacks, with an act of stupidity committed in the name of Christianity, the public burning of the Koran.

This threatened libricide proves little more than the existence of a few attention-seeking crackpots in a continental country — the natural resource that makes cable news possible. But the Manhattan mosque controversy has exposed a broader, conservative Christian suspicion of mosques and Muslims.

Gerson’s been very reasonable of late. The Bush people are looking downright moderate compared to this crowd.

Jonathan Capehart:

For all of Palin’s popularity within the Republican Party and the Tea Party movement, poll after poll shows that the American people don’t think she’s ready to be president of the United States. This was the case last February. Also last April. And now this week in the 60 Minutes/Vanity Fair poll, 59 percent of those surveyed said Palin would not “have the ability to be an effective president.” This chart from Pollster.com paints a picture of Palin’s ultimate problem.

Pollster.com:


Green diary rescue & open thread

Published on: 2nd September, 2010

Green diary rescue & open thread  | read this item

At Grist, Randy Rieland writes:

Ready for your morning bowl of crazy? Five years ago, Congress set aside millions of acres of public land in the Southwest for the development of solar farms. This was primo real estate for solar, considered one of the best spots in the world. So far not one solar panel has been erected.

Oh, you want us to build something? This discouraging news comes courtesy of the AP’s Jason Dearen, whose investigation shows that the understaffed U.S. Bureau of Land Management (BLM) focused almost all its time on approving oil and gas projects and leased the land on a first-come, first-served basis, often to outfits with little or no experience in actually building solar farms.

Case in point: Cogentrix Solar Services, a subsidiary of Goldman Sachs. Cogentrix had zero solar experience, but holds leases on nearly half the Nevada acreage for which applications have been filed. Another sickening stat: In the last five years, the BLM has approved more than 73,000 oil and gas leases on public land, but hasn’t given final approval to one solar lease. Not a one. Writes Dearen:

BLM’s solar leasing system ended up allowing developers to lay claim to prime sites — many located in the deserts that span California, Nevada, and Arizona. All developers had to do was fill out an application, pay a fee and file development plans. But many were so vague that it was difficult for BLM to separate the serious projects from the speculative ones.

• • • • •

Green diary rescue appears Thursdays and Sundays. Inclusion of a particular diary does not necessarily indicate my agreement with it. The rescue begins below and continues in the jump.

• • • • •


Haole in Hawaii posted another photo diary of Hawai’i Underwater: “These photos were taken during a handful of dives over the past two weekends including a night dive last night at Pupukea Marine Reserve. I hope you enjoy your visit.”

Deep Harm had looked at rotten eggs in Rodents, maggots and steaming piles of hypocrisy at egg farms:  ”The inspectors found manure piles up to 8 feet high, holding doors open and giving wildlife access. “Wildlife” included live rodents, wild birds and a plague of flies, live and dead, including their larvae (maggots). ‘Additional problems included overflowing manure pits, improper worker sanitation and wild birds [a potential source of avian influenza] roosting around feed bins,’ reports The New York Times. The investigators also found salmonella bacteria in chicken feed and in barn and walkway areas, and in water used to wash eggs at a Hillandale facility.  It isn’t clear, yet, which came first:  the salmonella or the egg.”


Open Thread and Diary Rescue

Published on: 2nd September, 2010

Open Thread and Diary Rescue  | read this item

Tonight’s Diary Rescue comes to you courtesy of the hard work and diligence of the following Rescue Rangers: Louisiana1976, ItsJessMe, YatPundit, sunspark says and srkp23. dadanation is thought to have done double duty both rescuing and editing, but we all have our doubts…

thE rescueD diarieS

thE usuaL suspectS

jotter has High Impact Diaries: September 1, 2010.

sardonyx brings us tonight’s Top Comments: Blameless Edition.

thE requisitE disclaimeR

Please use this as an Open Thread as well as your chance to promote your favorite diaries of the day. Respectful engagement is most welcome here. Please keep in mind that each Diary Rescue’s daily purview extends from 3pm PST yesterday to 3pm PST today


Polling and Political Wrap, 9/2/10

Published on: 2nd September, 2010

Polling and Political Wrap, 9/2/10  | read this item

There is a lot of polling in the Thursday edition of the Wrap, and little-to-none of it is bound to make Democrats terribly optimistic about the direction in which the 2010 election cycle is heading.

Sure, a lot of the less-than-charitable data comes from partisan sources. But even a couple of independent sources come up with data that shows Democrats in considerably bleaker positions than earlier data would seem to indicate.

That warning offered in advance, let’s trudge forward with the Thursday edition of the Wrap….

THE U.S. SENATE

FL-Sen: Crist internal gives him (narrow lead), as he gains Dem nod
Given where public polling was on this race as recently as three weeks ago, it is hard to get a lot of confidence for Independent Charlie Crist based on the release of his own internal polling by Keith Fredrick. The new poll gives Crist a lead of just a single point, with Crist at 35%, Rubio at 34%, and Kendrick Meek well behind the pack at 17%. Crist did get some welcome news today, as he locked in a surprising endorsement in the form of state senator Al Lawson. Lawson just finished with a closer-than-expected primary challenge to Congressman Allen Boyd, one in which he challenged Boyd to his left. Lawson’s defection is particularly notable, given that he is an African-American Democrat who is choosing Crist over Kendrick Meek, who is seeking to be the first African-American member of the U.S. Senate ever from the state of Florida.

KY-Sen: New Braun Research poll puts Paul back in the lead
Braun Research is back with their semi-regular survey of Kentucky on behalf of CN|2, and their assessment of the race has changed quite a bit in the past few weeks. After giving Democrat Jack Conway a one-point lead in their last survey, the pollster moves Republican Rand Paul back into the lead. The new numbers put Paul at 42% and Conway at 37%. The poll also decides to look ahead to 2011, where they find Democratic Governor Steve Beshear in position to get re-elected narrowly, as he leads Republican challenger David Williams by six points.

NY-Sen: Primary poll puts undecided in the lead…by a lot
In a sign of how pedestrian the Republican primary to challenge Senator Kirsten Gillibrand has been, half of the GOP electorate is still undecided with less than two weeks to go, according to the latest Quinnipiac poll of the Empire State. Former Congressman Joe DioGuardi paces the field with 28% of the vote, with David Malpass trailing at 12% and Bruce Blakeman in the third spot at 10% of the vote.

OH-Sen: PPP poll gives Portman a solid edge over Fisher
PPP’s new poll out of the Buckeye State is a reversal of fortune from the previous PPP survey in the state. Republican Rob Portman has pulled out to a seven-point lead over Democrat Lee Fisher (45-38). Tom Jensen of PPP points to an interesting dichotomy among the undecideds: they voted for Obama in 2008 by a two-to-one margin, but have a net disapproval (40-46) of the President at this point. What direction will those folks head in November? This pattern could be repeated in races all over the country.

THE U.S. HOUSE

IA-03: Boswell gets key endorsement as Dems hammer Zaun
In agricultural Iowa, incumbent Democrat Leonard Boswell got a key endorsement in his dangerously close battle with Republican Brad Zaun in the swing 3rd district. Boswell won the endorsement of the Iowa Corn Growers yesterday. Meanwhile, Iowa Democrats have launched a hard hitting ad on Brad Zaun that goes after the Republican for a domestic incident in 2001 that recently came to light (for what it’s worth, DMR columnist Kathie Obradovich is not a fan of the ad).

NY-23: Hoffman vows to fight until November
For those hoping for some delicious Republican infighting saving a tough seat for the Dems, you are about to get some love from a very familiar source. Doug Hoffman has now made it clear–if he does not win the Republican primary in a couple of weeks, he will continue onward to the general election as the nominee of the Conservative Party. Interestingly, the Tea Party that launched Hoffman to prominence in 2009 is making it clear that they may not go along for the ride in November if Hoffman decides to split the conservative vote yet again.

PA-12: GOP internal predicts GOP to snag Murtha seat in November
Democrat Mark Critz might have won the special election to replace John Murtha in May, but a new internal poll out from Public Opinion Strategies is claiming that Republican Tim Burns will claim the district on his second attempt in November. An internal poll from the NRCC claims that Burns is at 48%, with the newly-minted incumbent Critz five points back at 43%. The district is a swing district, one carried by both John Kerry in 2004 and John McCain in 2008 (a rarity, to be sure).

VA-05: The ugliest poll on Earth just got…uglier
Republicans crowed, and Democrats blanched, when a summer poll in the 5th district held by Democrat Tom Perriello from SurveyUSA showed the incumbent trailed by twenty-three points to Republican Rob Hurt. SurveyUSA is back in the Fifth, and the results are even worse. The pollster, which has been unrelentingly negative in its assessment of Democratic House candidates this year, has Hurt now at 61% of the vote, with Perriello well behind at 35%.

RACE FOR THE HOUSE: Ayers McHenry heads west, and the ugly continues
Consider the source (Republican pollster, partisan sponsor), but the third wave of House polls from GOP number-crunchers Ayers McHenry looks at the West, and the numbers for the Democrats there are almost universally awful. The pollster, looking at ten Democratic-held districts, has the GOP going 6-3-1 in trial heats for November. The standard caveats apply for internal polls, but the Colorado blog ColoradoPols uncovered another potential issue: the fact that the firm did not appear to poll more than the two major party candidates. In races with active teabagger candidates, that could actually matter in a close race.

AZ-01: Paul Gosar (R) 47%, Rep. Ann Kirkpatrick (D) 41%
AZ-05: Dave Schweikert (R) 50%, Rep. Harry Mitchell (D) 44%
AZ-08: Rep. Gabrielle Giffords (D) 46%, Jesse Kelly (R) 46%
CA-11: David Harmer (R) 45%, Rep. Jerry McNerney (D) 44%
CA-47: Rep. Loretta Sanchez (D) 45%, Van Tran (R) 43%
CO-03: Scott Tipton (R) 51%, Rep. John Salazar (D) 43%
CO-04: Cory Gardner (R) 50%, Rep. Betsy Markey (D) 39%
NM-01: Rep. Martin Heinrich (D) 49%, Jon Barela (D) 42%
NV-03: Joe Heck (R) 48%, Rep. Dina Titus (D) 45%
OR-05: Rep. Kurt Schrader (D) 44%, Scott Bruun (R) 36%

THE GUBERNATORIAL RACES

FL-Gov: Scott selects running mate for November
Rick Scott made an interesting selection today, giving the nod to African American Republican state legislator Jennifer Carroll as his choice for Lt. Governor. Besides the obvious gender and racial balance represented by Carroll is a potentially more important political consideration: Carroll had been a supporter of Bill McCollum during the recently concluded primary. The thaw between Scott and supporters of McCollum could be a long time in coming, as the vanquished foe is still very reluctant to support his fellow Republican.

MD-Gov: Dems pounce on Ehrlich union endorsement
It has become common practice for Republicans to pooh-pooh union endorsements of Democrats, arguing that such endorsements are the work of the “bosses” and not good rank-and-file teachers/officers/etc. Therefore, it is a tad ironic that a rare union endorsement of a Republican candidate has such transparent evidence of such top-driven influence. The Democrats are pouncing on the endorsement of Republican Robert Ehrlich by the Maryland Classified Employees Association. Democrats were lightning-quick to point out that the union’s executive director is a former Republican state legislator, who is running for office as a Republican this year (and could probably use some love from the top of the ticket).

NY-Gov: Republican primary poll shows race still in the air
Rick Lazio has been the frontrunner for the GOP gubernatorial nomination throughout the 2010 election, but that might be changing at the last, according to the new poll from Quinnipiac. Lazio’s lead is down to twelve points (47-35) over businessman Carl Paladino. Lazio is probably close enough to 50% to be comfortable, but his days of having a two-to-one lead over Paladino are pretty much over.

OR-Gov: Labor comes in big for Democrat John Kitzhaber
Oregon is one of those states where donors can drop big coin on their favored candidates: at one point earlier in the cycle, the majority of Republican Chris Dudley’s take came from just two donors. Labor is starting to weigh in on the race. The latest example: the AFSCME, which dropped six figures ($100K) during August into the coffers of Democratic gubernatorial nominee John Kitzhaber.

TX-Gov: Even GOP internal polls have Perry sitting at 50%
As a sign of how potentially vulnerable incumbent Republican Rick Perry truly is, even internal polling for the GOP cannot put the incumbent over 50% in his re-election bid. That said, the poll conducted by Wilson Research Strategies for GOPAC does give Perry a sizeable edge, with Perry at 50% and Democratic challenger Bill White at 38%.

THE RAS-A-POLL-OOZA

Not a ton of data from the House of Ras today, but it joins the rest of the numbers from their day in that unremittingly negative tone. Team Ras-sie put both Rick Scott (FL-Gov) and Dino Rossi (WA-Sen) out in front today. The only poll that can come close to being construed as positive for Dems is the relatively small lead for GOP incumbent Sean Parnell in Alaska.

AK-Gov: Gov. Sean Parnell (R) 53%, Ethan Berkowitz (D) 43%
FL-Gov: Rick Scott (R) 45%, Alex Sink (D) 44%
WA-Sen: Dino Rossi (R) 48%, Sen. Patty Murray (D) 46%


Senate Snapshot, September 2nd: Cool charts, bad news

Published on: 2nd September, 2010

Senate Snapshot, September 2nd: Cool charts, bad news  | read this item

After a two-week absence, the Senate Snapshot is back. The charts are a lot cooler, but the news is grim:

Senate Snapshot, September 2nd, With Rasmussen Polls

Thanks to user Dbug, the snapshot now comes with a chart displaying the odds of each possible seat outcome:

Odds of each seat outcome

The chances of 50 and 51 Democratic seats are almost identical, with 50 Democratic seats slightly more likely (and those totals include Sanders and Lieberman). Republicans have an 18.7% of taking control of the chamber.

Senate Snapshot, September 2nd, Without Rasmussen Polls

Without Rasmussen polls included in the averages, the picture is not much better. In fact, it is only about as good as the snapshot was one month ago, with Rasmussen polling included. A narrow Democratic majority of 52 seats is the most likely outcome:

Senate Snapshot, September 2nd

Looking desperately for good news? President Obama’s job approval is back in positive territory, according to Gallup. If the situation is going to turn around for Democrats, that positive trend will have to be more than a blip.

Notes
–This forecast is a snapshot, not a forecast. All of the odds presented here are based on if the election were held today. It is not a prediction of future trends.

If a campaign isn’t listed here, then it is not currently as close as any of the campaigns listed here.

–Charlie Crist’s chances of victory are not included in the overall Democratic, or Republican, chances of victory.

–A * indicates that the candidate has a primary challenger, but is the favorite to win the nomination.

–All polls used in the averages are taken from Pollster.com.

–A complete description of the methodology behind this forecast, along with all the research and a FAQ, can be found here.


Veterans call for Simpson’s removal

Published on: 2nd September, 2010

Veterans call for Simpson's removal  | read this item

Add VoteVets to the growing list of organizations calling for Simpson’s ouster from the catfood commission. You’ll recall that this week Simpson aimed his fire at disabled veterans who are “not helping us to save the country in this fiscal mess.” See, the benefits they receive in return for having sacrificed their health to defend the country cost too much.

One veterans’ group, VoteVets, is demanding Simpson’s removal on behalf of the millions of veterans who receive Social Security and the millions of disabled vets Simpson blames for the deficit. Via e-mail:

Washington DC – The nation’s largest progressive veterans organization, VoteVets.org, is calling on President Obama to relieve former Senator Alan Simpson from his chairmanship of a deficit reduction commission for defamatory comments about veterans.

In a letter to the President, Jon Soltz, Iraq War Veteran and Chairman of VoteVets.org, wrote, “On Tuesday, Senator Simpson actually put veteran’s benefits on the chopping block… blaming disabled veterans for the country’s fiscal situation. And for us, that is the final straw.”

Soltz says, “President Obama, this week you called for all Americans to honor and thank our troops. I know you agree that honoring our troops can’t just be lip service. And the best way to honor those who serve our country is to make sure that we take care of them once they return home. That means strengthening the vital programs we rely on, including Social Security and veterans’ health care, not undermining them as Senator Simpson seems intent on doing.”

The full letter is below the fold.


Undocumented immigration on the wane

Published on: 2nd September, 2010

Undocumented immigration on the wane  | read this item

Again, facts get in the way of scary wingnut hate rhetoric.

The number of illegal immigrants entering the United States has plunged by almost two-thirds in the past decade, a dramatic shift after years of growth in the population, according to a new report by the Pew Hispanic Center.

Between 2000 and 2005, an average of 850,000 people a year entered the United States without authorization, according to the report released Wednesday. As the economy plunged into recession between 2007 and 2009, that number fell to 300,000.

Undocumented immigration is not on the rise. Crime is not up in border areas. Immigrants do not fuel what crime exists. Dishwashers and landscapers have nothing to do with the drug cartels. Etc.

The entire xenophobic case is built on a foundation of lies and fear mongering.


Republican victories means higher deficits, fewer jobs

Published on: 2nd September, 2010

Republican victories means higher deficits, fewer jobs  | read this item

We’d be even more fucked.

Nothing is more important to Republican politicians these days than jobs and the deficit—at least according to Republican politicians. As House Minority Leader John Boehner put it in a “major economic address” on Tuesday, President Obama is “doing everything possible to prevent jobs from being created” while refusing to do anything at all “about bringing down the deficits that threaten our economy.” Elect Republicans in November, Boehner assured his audience, and we will put an end to this insanity.

There’s only one problem with Boehner’s message: so far, the things that Republicans have said they want to do won’t actually boost employment or reduce deficits. In fact, much the opposite. By combing through a variety of studies and projections from nonpartisan economic sources, we here at Gaggle headquarters have found that if Republicans were in charge from January 2009 onward—and if they were now given carte blanche to enact the proposals they want to—the projected 2010–2020 deficits would be larger than they are under Obama, and fewer people would probably be employed.  

Follow the link to the math, but the synopsis is this — the stimulus created or saved between 1.4 and 3.3 million jobs. While the health care reform bill and letting tax cuts lapse for the wealthiest Americans actually lower the deficit.

Republicans opposed all those things, hence, we’d have fewer people employed, and we’d be suffering from even higher deficits.

Not that Republicans care. All the talk about “deficits” is empty rhetoric.

It’s time Republican candidates are pressed on exactly how they’ll balance the budget. Because given the reality of their proposals (like Boehner’s), it’s clear the math simply doesn’t add up.


Late afternoon/early evening open thread

Published on: 2nd September, 2010

Late afternoon/early evening open thread  | read this item


House Dems to Obama: No Social Security cuts

Published on: 2nd September, 2010

House Dems to Obama: No Social Security cuts  | read this item

House Democrats, led by Congressional Progressive Caucus co-chair Raul Grijalva, are pledging to stand against any recommendation from the catfood commission to cut Social Security.

In a letter obtained by TPM’s Brian Beutler, they write:

We write today to express our strong support for Social Security and our view that it should be strengthened. We oppose any cuts to Social Security benefits, including raising the retirement age. We also oppose any effort to privatize Social Security, in whole or in part.

You have charged the National Commission on Fiscal Responsibility and Reform with proposing recommendations that improve the long-term fiscal outlook and address the growth of entitlement spending. It is our view that Social Security–which is prohibited by law from adding to the national budget deficit–does not belong as part of those recommendations….

If any of the Commission’s recommendations cut or diminish Social Security in any way, we will stand firmly against them. We urge you to join us in protecting and strengthening Social Security rather than letting it fall victim to a misguided attempt to reduce budget deficits on the backs of working families.

The full text of the letter is below the fold. The original co-signers of the letter are Grijalva, John Conyers (D-MI), Dan Maffei (D-NY), Mary Jo Kilroy (D-OH), Chellie Pingree (D-ME), and CPC co-chair Lynn Woolsey (D-CA). Beutler reports that “Democrats and advocates are rounding up signers, and will deliver the letter to Obama once the numbers climb, likely after Congress returns later this month.” As Beutler notes, the CPC has drawn such lines in the sand previously, most notably with the public option in health reform.

This time is different, though, in that it’s not pushing uphill to establish a new policy but in defense of the most popular and effective long-standing programs in the nation’s history, with a massive constituency, and it’s probably not just going to be the CPC in this fight. If you have a Democratic representative, call (the Capitol Switchboard number is (202) 224-3121) or write and ask them to sign on to the letter.


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