Polling and Political Wrap-Up, 9/29/09

Published on: 29th September, 2009

Tuesday, unlike yesterday, winds up being a reasonably quiet day on the campaign trail. We do get one headline out of Virginia: Democrat Creigh Deeds is either close to Republican Bob McDonnell in the gubernatorial race, or he is not even in striking distance.

VA-Gov: Two New Polls Give Wildly Contradictory Results
We get a pair of new public polls in the Virginia Governor’s races, with totally disparate results (which, after some checking, emanate from totally disparate samples). SurveyUSA still smells a blowout, giving GOP nominee Bob McDonnell a fourteen-point edge over Democrat Creigh Deeds (55-41). Meanwhile, the guys at PPP find a considerably closer race, with Deeds trailing McDonnell by just five (48-43). The big difference? The assumptions about turnout are dramatically different. The 2008 electorate went to Obama by over six points. The PPP sample was Obama +3. The SurveyUSA sample? McCain +7. For his part, Deeds is hitting the campaign trail and touting bipartisan endorsements from two past governors–Democrat Mark Warner and Republican Linwood Holton.

AR-Sen: Lincoln Trails All Four Republican Challengers
Well, it looks like kowtowing to insurance companies and Republicans in opposing aggressive health care reform is paying enormous dividends for Arkansas “Democrat” Blanche Lincoln. Lincoln trails the four Republicans by margins of two to eight points, according to Rasmussen. Once again, Rasmussen gives absurdly high levels of name recognition to the four relatively unknown GOPers (name recognition rating from 60-66%). Now, however, we might have an explanation, courtesy of the always readable Mark Blumenthal over at Pollster.

NV-Sen: Menendez ‘Confident’ About Reid Re-Election
Here is a curious one from the “what tea leaves are you reading?” department: New Jersey Senator (and DSCC head) Robert Menendez told reporters today that he is “convinced” that Harry Reid will be re-elected in 2010. His quote seems more than a tad optimistic, given Reid’s less-than-savory poll numbers:

“I don’t accept the proposition that he’s in trouble. Harry Reid has been the greatest senator Nevada ever had – stopping Yucca Mountain, bringing jobs to Nevada. Harry Reid is not Tom Daschle and this is not South Dakota. I’m convinced Harry Reid will win that race, and I would not bet against Harry Reid any stretch of the imagination.”

TX-Gov: Listen, All Y’All, It’s A Sabotage
This should bring fond memories of the Summer of 2006: Texas Governor Rick Perry’s website went kaput during a live webcast, and he is convinced that one of his (many) political rivals is behind it. The reporters at the Austin-American Statesman are skeptical–they are pretty convinced that the website just crashed from overload. One has to wonder if the Perry campaign picked their web team off of a recommendation from Senator Joe Lieberman.

RACE FOR THE HOUSE: Three New Names in The 2010 Mix
A trio of new Republicans have announced bids for Congress next year, with a pair of candidates going after Class of 2006 Democrats in the Keystone State, and another candidate challenging the anointed son of former Speaker Dennis Hastert in Illinois. First off, a potentially solid opponent has surfaced to take on Jason Altmire in PA-04. Lawyer and former Homeland Security official Keith Rothfus has filed paperwork to take on Altmire. This is a second choice situation for the GOP, who seem unable to coerce state legislator Mike Turzai into the field. Meanwhile, across the state, Patrick Murphy has drawn an opponent in PA-08, where computer consultant Jeffrey Schott is planning a bid. Meanwhile, in the Land of Lincoln, the assumption that Ethan Hastert would have a clear shot at Democrat Bill Foster in IL-14 is long gone, as a stream of challengers are eyeing bids. The latest name to surface is state Senator Randy Hultgren, who becomes the fifth Republican in the field.